Dr. Doom, who predicted the 2008 financial crash, now predicts a ‘long, ugly’ recession
- Economists say a “long and ugly” recession could last through 2023.
- He sees the impasse as well as the massive debt crisis as in the 1970s.
- It also said that the world is soon going to see another “bad” pandemic.
Economist Nouriel Roubini, who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, has said one is “long and ugly”. global recession Coming which could last till 2023.
Roubini, president and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, received the nickname “Dr. Doom” after correctly predicting the housing bubble crash of 2007 to 2008.
In a recent interview, he said he expects the S&P 500 to drop 40%, reported ndtv,
“Even in a field vanilla meltdown, The S&P 500 could fall as much as 30%.”
Roubini said the upcoming US recession is not going to be shallow. He said US citizens should pay attention to the large debt ratios of corporations and governments.
with inflation And with loan payment costs rising, he believes many “zombie” houses, banks, shadow banks and countries will die.
“So we’ll see who’s swimming naked.”
Roubini also understands that it is impossible for the Federal Reserve to achieve 2% inflation without a hard landing.
Dr. Doom expects the rate to increase by 50 basis points in November and December. This means that by the end of 2022, the fed funds rate will be between 4% and 4.25%, according to a report. ndtv,
He added that persistent inflation and wages in the services sector will force the Fed to hike further. All this on top of negative supply shocks coming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the pandemic and China’s zero-COVID policy.
Roubini said he does not see fiscal stimulus measures when the world is in recession because debt-ridden governments are “running out of fiscal bullets.”
“If you do a fiscal stimulus, you’re pushing up aggregate demand.”
That is visible in the form of a massive debt crisis, along with slow growth, high unemployment and rising prices, as in the 1970s.
He confidently predicted that this “will not be a short and shallow recession, it is going to be severe, long and ugly.”
In 2008, homes and banks suffered the most. He said this time around, “corporations, and shadow banks, such as hedge funds, private equity and credit funds” will take the hardest hit.
He said the world is going to see another “bad” pandemic any time soon.
Roubini advised investors to “go light on equities and hold more cash.” He said that assets can fall by 10%-30% while the face value of cash remains at zero.
For those with fixed income, he advised staying away from long-term bonds.